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Paul M. Kennedy
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Preparing for the Twenty-First Century Paperback – February 1, 1994

by Paul Kennedy (Author)
4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 22 ratings
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Kennedy's groundbreaking book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers helped to reorder the current priorities of the United States. Now, he synthesizes extensive research on fields ranging from demography to robotics to draw a detailed, persuasive, and often sobering map of the very near future--a bold work that bridges the gap between history, prophecy, and policy.
Previous page
  1. Print length
    448 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Vintage
  4. Publication date
    February 1, 1994
  5. Dimensions
    5.15 x 0.92 x 8.78 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    9780679747055
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0679747055
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Yale historian Kennedy assesses the population explosion, environmental degradation, the widening gap between rich and poor nations and other global problems of the 21st century in this nine-week PW bestseller.
Copyright 1994 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Review

"Penetrating...the book's impact is crushing."--The New York Times
"Required reading for anyone who wants to take measure of the 21st-century realities." --The New York Times Book Review.

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ 0679747052
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Vintage; Reprint edition (February 1, 1994)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 448 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9780679747055
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0679747055
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11.6 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.15 x 0.92 x 8.78 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 22 ratings

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Paul M. Kennedy

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Customer reviews

4.2 out of 5 stars
4.2 out of 5
22 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

B. McConnell
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent writer
Reviewed in the United States on June 5, 2023
Verified Purchase
The book is over 20 years old but still relevant in that is clarifies where many of the issues we are struggling with today came from. Thorough analysis.
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Ed Thornwhisle
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in the United States on January 31, 2016
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A great book that needs to be read by every American.
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ADT
5.0 out of 5 stars The World and the American Empire
Reviewed in the United States on July 16, 2006
Paul Kennedy's "Preparing for the Twenty-First Century" is an intellectual look at global trends ranging from global warming to the scientific breakthroughs in biotechnology and robotics. He begins his analysis by discussing one of the world's greatest challenges today - population growth. The world today is similar to that of what Thomas Malthus saw in 1798, a population that could and would outgrow the resources available.

One of the more entertaining subjects for students of political thought is his analysis of economic globalization. Mr. Kennedy points to some specific reasons on why the economic progress of globalization has been so slow forthcoming: corrupt regimes, excess military funding, and religious fundamentalism, to name a few. Mr. Kennedy believes that a global shift towards biotechnology would allow us to move away from traditional farming practices; therefore making it easier to fight global threats such as starvation and economic deprivation. There are, of course, many other issues discussed in "Preparing for the Twenty-First Century."

In conclusion, Mr. Kennedy's thoughts on the future of the American Empire are of a pessimistic view. As he states, with a great support of factual information, the continuous decline in economic growth, loss in per capita productivity, and a rising trade deficit are issues of serious concern. Besides the economic threats, the country also faces social challenges in areas of crime, health, and education. A must read for under-graduate and graduate students of political science and thought.
8 people found this helpful
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adieleh@destiny.esd105.wednet.edu
5.0 out of 5 stars Winners and Losers in the 21st Century
Reviewed in the United States on September 4, 1998
Like a lot of readers, I gulped down Paul Kennedy's THE RISE AND FALL OF THE GREAT POWERS when it came out in 1987, eager to read his predictions for the US, Japan, China, Russia, and the European Community. His reasoning, solidly based on his detailed knowledge of European history, made his book appear sedately respectable--even to those who did not agree with his conclusions. His second volume, PREPARING FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, was inevitably a different sort of project: extrapolation of then-current trends into the new millenium. The book was published in 1993, but I didn't finish reading it until this summer; one of its pleasures was seeing how close his predictions came to the reality of events in places such as Japan and Russia. (His view toward Japan was one of "guarded optimisn": he felt it was in some ways best-suited for the challenges of the 21st century, but he pinpointed its vulnerabilities and deficiencies--especially the weakness of its political leadership, which is now proving so costly. With regard to Russia and to Eastern Europe, he was clearly pessimistic but attempted to consider more moderate possibilities; in the end he tended to underestimate the catastrophes ahead.) In many ways the second book shares the strengths of the first: sound reasoning, a good base of facts, and a point of view neither alarmist nor Pollyannish. Kennedy identifies trends, issues, and problems; he attempts to clarify choices and parameters. He suggests potential winners and losers of various scenarios. He does what he sets out to do; but most people don't really like this second volume, I think, because he is honest about the magnitude of the issues and the limits of possible responses. Kennedy focuses on trends in demographics, economics, technology, ecology, and politics: things like globalization and robotics and biotechnology--but he puts these glittering changes into specific contexts. Who wins, and who loses, he asks, when these trends interact with the specifics of cultures as diverse as China and Sweden, Japan and Mexico, Russia and Ethiopia? And how do the interactions among various trends intensify the impact of each? How much can political and economic leaders do to magnify advantages or minimize deficits? And how likely are the elites to do the right thing? Without advocating fatalism, Kennedy ends his book by saying, "...in the unlikely event that governments and societies do decide to transform themselves, we ought to recognize that our endeavors might have only a marginal efect on the profound driving forces of today's world." This is NOT what the elites want to hear, but in a month of Japanese recession sliding into depression and Russian debility crumbling into chaos, Paul Kennedy's cool rationality seems more relevant than ever.
15 people found this helpful
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Guillermo Maynez
2.0 out of 5 stars Dated by now
Reviewed in the United States on March 15, 2001
Back in 1993, the book sounded ominously prescient. Those were the years when the intellectual fashion was to predict the demise of the US and the coming supremacy of Germany and Japan (Lester Thurow, etc.). Kennedy said Japan, with its cohesive, educated society, would do better than the US and Europe, with their aging, diverse populations. Well, it's still early in the century to say anything, but so far Japan's homogeneous society looks stagnant, while the US and many European societies are extremely dynamic, thanks in good part to the energy of immigrants.
Of course it is not a dumb book. Kennedy is intelligent as a historian, but makes a very poor prophet (the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is another interesting but very flawed book). Kennedy does not talk about Internet, for example. Not his fault, certainly, but anyway it's a thing to miss in a prediction of what the XXI century will be like. Summing up, the book was interesting eight years ago, but by now it looks very dated. Prophesizing is always an exciting but risky game to play.
16 people found this helpful
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David Wineberg
3.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating Perpsective
Reviewed in the United States on March 15, 2010
One of the great gifts of Paul Kennedy is perspective. He takes you up and lets you look at things from a distance, putting them in perspective. So it was with great anticipation that I read this book in 2010, predicting 2025 from the vantage point of 1990.

He gets a lot right, and is only way off on a few things. There is an (in retrospect) annoying focus on robotics, which was very big in the eighties. Kennedy takes that and projects it to 2025 as if robots would be the measure of any industrial society. I don't think he goes five pages without using the word. Well, it hasn't turned out that way. For one thing, assembly lines and packaging machines have simply become far more sophisticated, so instead of programmable robot arms, we get entire systems in a room.

On the other hand, the anticipation of methane being released from Siberian permafrost, the rising of the oceans, the killing off of various species and inconvenient climate change is well underway as predicted. No one has the right to be taken by surprise.

I learned a great deal from this book, as I do from everything Kennedy writes. Worth the trip.
3 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

Dr Zhu Weiguang
4.0 out of 5 stars A good book.
Reviewed in Singapore on June 30, 2022
Verified Purchase
I learn from the book.
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