Synopses & Reviews
People who are trying to solve tough economic, social, or environmental problems often find themselves frustratingly stuck. They cannot solve their problems in their current context; the larger system within which they are operating is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They cannot transform this system on their own or by working only with their friends or colleagues; the system is too complex to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector. And the actors whose cooperation would be necessary to transform the system don’t understand or agree with or trust each other enough to work together.
This book describes a powerful new methodology for dealing with this increasingly common set of challenges. Transformative Scenario Planning is a creative and constructive way for actors from across a whole system to work together to transform that system. It is a way for them to get unstuck and to move forward on solving their tough problems.
Transformative Scenario Planning takes the well-established methodology of adaptive scenario planning—rigorously constructing a set of stories of alternative possible futures—and turns it on its head. It uses scenarios not only to understand and adapt to the future but also to challenge and change it. It offers a way for us to transform ourselves and our relationships with one another and thereby to transform the systems of which we are part.
Review
“Sixteen years ago Adam Kahane came to Colombia and worked with us on the future of our country. The four scenarios we built back then have come to life, one after another, and today we are living the best one. In this book Kahane explains how scenario planning can transform the future.”
—Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia
“Kahane makes clear that the solutions to our big problems take our personal engagement, derive from our values, and reflect our connectedness to one another.”
—Bill Bradley, Managing Director, Allen & Company, and former US Senator
“Every leader, policymaker, and citizen can learn and take strength from Kahane’s central message: by working together, setting aside prejudices, and developing trust, we can change the future.”
—Trevor Manuel, Chairperson, National Planning Commission, South Africa
“I highly commend this book. Adam has taken scenario planning to a new level, beyond the confines of business strategy, to deal with wider social and economic issues.”
—Vince Cable, Secretary of State for Business, United Kingdom
“All of our toughest problems, from climate change to inequality, have complexity at their heart. Adam Kahane, with his track record of work for social and environmental justice, has written a powerful and practical guide to using scenario planning to transform such problems. This is a book for those hungry for new ideas about how to achieve change.”
—Phil Bloomer, Director, Campaigns and Policy, Oxfam
“We all face challenges and opportunities that can only be addressed with fresh understandings and innovative forms of collaboration. At Shell we have learned the value of combining scenario thinking with strategic choices. Building on his extensive practical experience, Kahane extends the boundaries of this practice.”
—Jeremy Bentham, Vice President, Global Business Environment, Royal Dutch Shell
“This deeply human book offers tangible means for tackling the intractable problems that confront us at every level of life, from domestic and local to national and beyond. It offers realistic, grounded hope of genuine transformation, and its insights and lessons should be part of the toolbox of everyone in leadership roles.”
—Thabo Makgoba, Anglican Archbishop of Cape Town
Synopsis
Getting UnstuckPeople who are trying to solve tough economic, social, and environmental problems often find themselves frustratingly stuck. They cant solve their problems in their current context, which is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They cant transform this context on their own—its too complex to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector. And the people whose cooperation they need dont understand or agree with or trust them or each other.
Transformative scenario planning is a powerful new methodology for dealing with these challenges. It enables us to transform ourselves and our relationships and thereby the systems of which we are a part. At a time when divisions within and among societies are producing so many people to get stuck and to suffer, it offers hope—and a proven approach—for moving forward together.
About the Author
Adam Kahane is a partner in the Cambridge, Mass. office of Reos Partners. From 1988 to 1993, Adam Kahane was the Head of Social, Political, Economic and Technological Scenarios for Royal Dutch Shell in London. Shell remains the gold standard for corporate scenario practice. He is also an Associate Fellow at the Saïd Business School of the University of Oxford, which is the leading research and teaching center in this field. Adam pioneered the field of transformative scenarios with his leadership of the South African Mont Fleur exercise of 1991-2, and since then has led similar processes throughout North, Central and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Australia.
Table of Contents
1. Transformative Scenario Planning
2. The Invention of This Methodology
3. When Things Aren’t Working
4. Convening a Team That Can Shift a System
5. Making Sense of What Is Happening
6. Constructing Stories about What Could Happen
7. Finding Ways to Move Forward
8. Planting Seeds of Better Futures
9. The Paradox, Dilemma and Mystery of Co-Creating